8% Buyback + Buffett’s Backing: The Steel Giant Hiding in Plain Sight

The unsexy stock turning into a capital-return machine—and why Warren Buffett just put skin in the game.

Steel isn’t supposed to be sexy. It’s cyclical, dirty, and tied to commodity prices most investors only half follow. The kind of business that looks great when bridges are being built and auto plants are humming—and disastrous when the economy sneezes.

But here’s what most investors miss: hidden inside this gritty sector is a fortress. Nucor has quietly engineered one of the most disciplined capital return strategies in the market, rewarding shareholders not just with dividends, but with aggressive buybacks that actually move the needle. Since its latest authorization, it’s already retired 8% of its shares—a staggering number for a $35+ billion company.

And then came the kicker: Berkshire Hathaway started buying Nucor. Buffett doesn’t dabble in steel unless he sees something extraordinary. His entry is more than a vote of confidence—it’s a signal that a company most investors dismiss as “just another cyclical” may be setting up for an entirely different narrative.

This isn’t just a steel stock anymore. It’s a cash-rich capital allocator disguised as an old-school manufacturer. And right now, the setup looks very interesting.

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YTD Performance Snapshot

Created with TradingView

• Current Price: ~$145 (as of August 19, 2025)

• Market Cap: ~$36 billion

• YTD Performance: +24% (outpacing the S&P 500’s ~17%)

• Valuation: ~13× forward earnings vs. S&P 500 ~22×

• Dividend: 1.5% yield, 51 years of consecutive hikes—Dividend Aristocrat status

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Bear Case

Nucor’s story isn’t bulletproof. Investors need to weigh the brutal realities: